Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have revised the projection of CPI-based inflation upward in the wake of the ongoing war in the Gulf region for the current fiscal year, with inflation now expected to touch 7.5% on average in 2025-26. Earlier, the Ministry of Finance had projected CPI-based inflation at around 6.1% for the current fiscal year. The current account deficit (CAD), which remained a hot topic during the recently concluded review talks between the IMF and the Pakistani side, is envisaged at 0.5% of GDP, equivalent to $2 billion for 2025-26. At one point, the Planning Ministry had developed two scenarios projecting the CAD touching $2.8 billion; however, Federal Secretary Finance Imdad Ullah Bosal, along with the economic advisor, convinced the IMF that the CAD would be curtailed at $2 billion by the end of June 2026.
Pakistan will have to pay $1.3 billion on April 8 or 9, 2026, upon the maturity of the Eurobond, amid the inability to launch any international bond, including Eurobond, Sukuk bond, or Chinese Panda bond, so far in the outgoing fiscal year. Although Minister for Finance Muhammad Aurangzeb made announcements several times, the Panda bond has yet to be launched.
