Impact of the fall of Afghanistan and future of Pakistan-China and Taliban relations in the region.
The rapid collapse of Afghan government forces and the rise of the Taliban shocked Europe and sparked an intense debate about the impact on European politics. While the United States was the driving force in adopting the Western strategy of intervention in Afghanistan, several European countries invested heavily in troops and resources. Now that effort is in tatters and Europeans have some inevitable questions. First and foremost, these revolve around the best ways to keep your citizens and those who have worked with them safely.
Analysts and officials in Pakistan believe that the Taliban’s victory serves a dual purpose: it helps Pakistan interests in Afghanistan by having a befriended government group and limiting the scope for Indian engagement in Kabul. India is trying to destabilize its western border region through Afghanistan. With the Taliban in power, Islamabad feels that alleged foreign support for terrorist groups like Tehreeke-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Pashtun and Baluch nationalist groups will decline. Pakistan hopes a Taliban-led government will give it the opportunity to expand its geoeconomic footprint as it seeks to connect Central Asia with access to the Arabian Sea at Gwadar.
This strategy hopes the Taliban can effectively stabilize Afghanistan and prevent anti-Pakistani groups from launching attacks, which are questionable assumptions. For China, the US withdrawal from Afghanistan is more of a burden than an opportunity. Beijing is initially looking at its interests in Afghanistan from a national security perspective, and the prospect of an escalation in the conflict on its western border is alarming. , China is concerned about the presence and potential growth of Uighur militancy in Afghanistan, including the Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP). China’s priority will be to step up its defenses against this threat and has already sought assurances from the Taliban that the group will not be allowed to operate in Afghanistan.
While some commentators argue that the US withdrawal will give China access to Afghanistan’s natural resources and strengthen its Belt and Road initiative, Beijing has made little headway in its current investments in Afghanistan and fears it will not get stuck in an unstable environment, attempted to use the US withdrawal to portray the US as an unreliable partner in the region, specifically targeting the countries Washington wants to work with on its Indo-Pacific strategy. While Pakistan sees the takeover by the Taliban as a positive development, China is less optimistic. Investments through a possible expansion of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
The much more likely outcome, however, is renewed instability that could threaten Chinese investments in Pakistan under the CPEC. TTP has already launched attacks on Chinese targets in Pakistan, including a bomb attack that killed several Chinese engineers in July and an apparent assassination attempt on the Chinese. Ambassador in April. Should such attacks escalate, Beijing could further slow down its projects in Pakistan while putting pressure on Islamabad to ensure security. Pakistan will remain a useful middleman for China given its Taliban ties, but the group’s rise could put pressure on the “Brotherhood of Iron”.
Islamabad accuses the Pakistan Taliban of having used Afghanistan as a base to carry a suicide attack in northern Pakistan in July that killed nine Chinese workers and four Pakistanis.
“We expected that the way things were unfolding in Afghanistan, the violence can spill over in Pakistan,” Pakistan army spokesman Major General Babar Iftikhar told a news conference on Friday.
Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Muhaid said in his maiden news conference that the Taliban would not allow any group to use Afghan soil to launch attacks against anyone.
Usman Khan Aurakzai based in Islamabad Pakistan, a columnist, a freelance TV correspondent, and a Geostrategist working on changing the Diplomatic, Political, and Regional Dynamics of the world.
