Former President Donald Trump trails Vice President Kamala Harris in Michigan in the latest survey, one of four this week that show her with a slight advantage, while a fifth shows Trump ahead—indicating the race remains razor-thin in the three “blue wall” states that could solidify a win for either candidate next week.
The Harris campaign is largely tying its success to improved numbers among Black and white working-class voters in Michigan—home to the largest Black-majority city in the U.S., Detroit, and a significant population of union voters who typically back Democratic presidential candidates. Data show Harris has made inroads among white voters without college degrees—a key demographic for Trump—since Joe Biden’s exit from the race, even as Trump leads the group by double digits. Support for Democrats among Black voters—who typically vote for the party by large margins—has eroded somewhat since 2020, though Harris appears to have won back some support in Michigan, according to Times/Siena polling that showed 75% of Black voters would vote for her in the group’s September survey, compared to 49% who said the same of Biden in May. Trump, meanwhile, has attacked the Biden-Harris administration’s policies to promote a transition to electric vehicles in Michigan, home to the “Big Three” auto manufacturers, alleging they are a threat to the auto industry and its scores of Michigan-based employees.
WHY DO UNION ENDORSEMENTS MATTER IN MICHIGAN?
Michigan households with a union member have been more likely to vote for a Democratic presidential candidate than union households nationwide in the last three presidential elections, Reuters reported, citing the polling firm Edison Research. The United Auto Workers’ endorsement of Harris was considered a boon to her candidacy in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. However, the International Brotherhood of Teamsters and International Association of Fire Fighters’ decisions not to endorse anyone, after backing Biden in 2020 and historically supporting Democrats, were widely seen as blows to Harris.
